Boluspor vs Keciorengucu
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-09-01 · 19:00 CET
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DWWDDThe score model made a Boluspor win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Boluspor 1.55 – 1.53 Keciorengucu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boluspor win | 37.6% | 17.4% | +20.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 22.0% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Keciorengucu win | 36.4% | 60.6% | -24.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 59.6% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.1% | 39.0% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | 56.0% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.7% | 40.8% | +10.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Boluspor 48.2 / Keciorengucu 49 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.