Erokspor vs Igdir FK
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-30 · 18:00 CET
LDLDL
WWWWDThe score model made an Erokspor win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Erokspor 1.66 – 0.92 Igdir FK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erokspor win | 53.7% | 49.8% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 26.2% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Igdir FK win | 19.8% | 24.0% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 51.5% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.1% | 31.3% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 54.3% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 35.4% | -4.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Erokspor 40.1 / Igdir FK 39.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.