Keciorengucu vs Umraniyespor
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-28 · 18:00 CET
WLLWD
WLDLDThe score model makes a Keciorengucu win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 39.3% vs 33.9% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Keciorengucu 1.75 – 0.98 Umraniyespor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keciorengucu win | 54.5% | 56.6% | -2.1% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 25.0% | +0.5% |
| Umraniyespor win | 20.1% | 18.4% | +1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 49.5% | +1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 29.5% | -0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | 50.0% | +2.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 33.9% | +5.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Keciorengucu 48.8 / Umraniyespor 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.