Prachuap vs Chiangrai Utd
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-10-11 · 13:00 CET
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WWDLLThe score model made a Prachuap win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Prachuap 1.46 – 0.81 Chiangrai Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prachuap win | 51.3% | 51.6% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 26.8% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Chiangrai Utd win | 19.4% | 21.5% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.7% | 47.0% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.5% | 27.2% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.9% | 49.5% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 32.4% | -4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Prachuap 35.2 / Chiangrai Utd 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.