Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok Utd
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-10-11 · 13:00 CET
LLDLW
DWLWWThe score model made a Bangkok Utd win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lamphun Warrior 1.08 – 1.41 Bangkok Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamphun Warrior win | 27.5% | 25.6% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 27.3% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Bangkok Utd win | 43.1% | 47.1% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 49.3% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | 29.7% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 52.9% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 34.1% | -6.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lamphun Warrior 35.2 / Bangkok Utd 35.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.