Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai
Thai League 1, Thailand · 2026-10-09 · 13:00 CET
WWLWL
LWWLDThe score model made a Ratchaburi win the most likely outcome at 71%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 6:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ratchaburi 2.30 – 0.76 Sukhothai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ratchaburi win | 71.3% | 65.2% | +6.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.0% | 20.4% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Sukhothai win | 9.7% | 14.4% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | 57.8% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.6% | 37.4% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 51.2% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.3% | 40.4% | +2.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ratchaburi 35.6 / Sukhothai 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.