St. Gallen vs Lausanne
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-10-11 · 16:30 CET
LWLLW
LDLLLThe score model makes a St. Gallen win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.3% vs 50.7% implied (+16.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Gallen 1.84 – 1.05 Lausanne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gallen win | 55.6% | 61.1% | -5.5% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 20.6% | +2.6% |
| Lausanne win | 21.2% | 18.3% | +2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | 68.9% | -13.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.7% | 49.3% | -16.6% |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 64.7% | -9.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 48.3% | -14.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Gallen 47.5 / Lausanne 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.