Zurich vs Thun
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-10-10 · 18:00 CET
WLDWD
DLLLWThe score model makes a Thun win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Thun win — 49.1% vs 40.8% implied (+8.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zurich 1.49 – 1.98 Thun.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zurich win | 28.9% | 35.3% | -6.5% |
| Draw | 22.1% | 23.8% | -1.8% |
| Thun win | 49.1% | 40.8% | +8.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.3% | 69.7% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.7% | 50.1% | -4.5% |
| Both teams to score | 66.9% | 70.5% | -3.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.5% | 48.8% | -5.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zurich 47.5 / Thun 31.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.