Lugano vs Servette
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-09-03 · 20:30 CET
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LLWWLThe score model made a Lugano win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lugano 1.69 – 1.11 Servette.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano win | 50.5% | 40.3% | +10.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.0% | 26.8% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Servette win | 24.6% | 32.8% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 56.5% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.0% | 35.8% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 60.6% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 38.9% | -5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lugano 45.6 / Servette 45.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.