Basel vs Sion
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-09-03 · 20:30 CET
DLLWL
WWWWDThe score model made a Basel win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Basel 1.47 – 1.26 Sion.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basel win | 41.4% | 37.1% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 25.5% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Sion win | 32.1% | 37.4% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 63.0% | -11.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.3% | 42.3% | -13.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 65.5% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.4% | 43.4% | -4.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Basel 46.6 / Sion 40.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.