Zurich vs Young Boys
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-09-01 · 20:30 CET
WLDWD
DWDDWThe score model made a Young Boys win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 2:4 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zurich 1.41 – 2.11 Young Boys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zurich win | 25.2% | 19.0% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.3% | 19.3% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Young Boys win | 53.5% | 61.7% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.3% | 74.8% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.8% | 56.4% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.7% | 68.9% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.3% | 52.7% | -7.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zurich 46.8 / Young Boys 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.