St. Gallen vs Thun
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-08-30 · 16:30 CET
LWLLW
DLLLWThe score model made a St. Gallen win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 3:4 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Gallen 1.90 – 1.56 Thun.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gallen win | 45.7% | 57.5% | -11.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 21.6% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Thun win | 31.7% | 20.9% | +10.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.3% | 70.5% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.6% | 51.2% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 67.5% | 68.0% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.3% | 49.2% | -2.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Gallen 45.1 / Thun 27.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.