Sion vs Lugano
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-08-30 · 14:00 CET
WWWWD
WWDWWThe score model made a Sion win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sion 1.29 – 1.22 Lugano.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sion win | 37.7% | 42.9% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.2% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Lugano win | 34.7% | 30.9% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 60.8% | -14.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 40.4% | -15.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 63.7% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 41.7% | -10.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sion 39.9 / Lugano 45.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.