Young Boys vs Basel
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-08-29 · 20:30 CET
DWDDW
DLLWLThe score model made a Young Boys win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 3:3 (HT 3:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Young Boys 2.05 – 1.41 Basel.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young Boys win | 52.2% | 59.9% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.7% | 20.8% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Basel win | 26.1% | 19.3% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | 72.1% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.4% | 53.3% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 65.9% | 68.0% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.0% | 50.5% | -9.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Young Boys 46 / Basel 46.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.