Servette vs Luzern
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-08-29 · 18:00 CET
LLWWL
DWDLWThe score model made a Servette win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Servette 1.97 – 1.53 Luzern.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Servette win | 47.9% | 49.8% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 24.3% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Luzern win | 30.0% | 25.9% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.0% | 62.6% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.5% | 42.3% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 67.7% | 63.6% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.9% | 43.2% | -0.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Servette 45.1 / Luzern 46.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.