Zurich vs Basel
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-08-22 · 20:30 CET
WLDWD
DLLWLThe score model made a Basel win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zurich 1.23 – 1.55 Basel.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zurich win | 30.0% | 31.2% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 25.8% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Basel win | 44.4% | 43.0% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 60.1% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.5% | 39.4% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | 62.7% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 41.0% | -5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zurich 45.7 / Basel 45.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.