Zurich vs Basel
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-08-22 · 20:30 CET
LLLWL
LLWLWThe score model makes an Basel win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.5% vs 61.8% implied (+7.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zurich 1.23 – 1.55 Basel.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zurich win | 30.0% | 28.3% | +1.7% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 25.8% | -0.1% |
| Basel win | 44.4% | 45.9% | -1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 58.9% | -6.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.5% | 38.2% | -7.7% |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | 61.0% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 40.5% | -4.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zurich 45.9 / Basel 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.