Yverdon vs Winterthur
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-11-20 · 20:15 CET
DWWLD
WLWWDThe score model makes a Winterthur win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Winterthur win — 40.1% vs 30.8% implied (+9.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yverdon 1.54 – 1.69 Winterthur.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yverdon win | 33.8% | 44.0% | -10.2% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.2% | +1.0% |
| Winterthur win | 40.1% | 30.8% | +9.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | 59.6% | +3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.5% | 39.6% | +0.8% |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | 62.1% | +3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 40.3% | +2.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Yverdon 33.1 / Winterthur 11.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Yverdon vs Winterthur in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.