Rapperswil-Jona vs Aarau
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-11-20 · 19:30 CET
WLDLL
LLLWLThe score model makes an Aarau win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 58.4% vs 55.1% implied (+3.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rapperswil-Jona 1.40 – 1.89 Aarau.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rapperswil-Jona win | 27.1% | 29.5% | -2.5% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 24.5% | +0.6% |
| Aarau win | 47.8% | 45.9% | +1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | 64.2% | -0.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.6% | 44.9% | -3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 65.3% | 66.3% | -1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.1% | 43.8% | +1.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Rapperswil-Jona 31.5 / Aarau 47.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Rapperswil-Jona vs Aarau in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.