Lausanne Ouchy vs Kriens
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-11-20 · 19:30 CET
DWDWW
WDLDWThe score model makes a Lausanne Ouchy win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Kriens win — 20.7% vs 15.6% implied (+5.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lausanne Ouchy 2.02 – 1.19 Kriens.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lausanne Ouchy win | 55.1% | 65.2% | -10.0% |
| Draw | 24.1% | 19.2% | +4.9% |
| Kriens win | 20.7% | 15.6% | +5.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.2% | 64.4% | -2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.0% | 44.8% | -4.8% |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | 57.7% | +4.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.9% | 43.8% | -0.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Lausanne Ouchy 42.5 / Kriens 11.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lausanne Ouchy vs Kriens in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.