Stade Nyonnais vs Aarau
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-10-09 · 20:15 CET
LDLLL
WDWDLThe score model makes an Aarau win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 63.5% vs 54.0% implied (+9.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stade Nyonnais 1.05 – 2.01 Aarau.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Nyonnais win | 17.9% | 15.9% | +2.0% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 19.7% | +4.1% |
| Aarau win | 58.3% | 64.4% | -6.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 66.1% | -7.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 46.0% | -9.5% |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 59.9% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.3% | 45.7% | -1.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stade Nyonnais 45.3 / Aarau 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.