Etoile-Carouge vs Yverdon
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-10-09 · 20:15 CET
WLDLL
DWWLDThe score model makes a Yverdon win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.0% vs 60.4% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Etoile-Carouge 1.17 – 1.64 Yverdon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Etoile-Carouge win | 25.7% | 32.0% | -6.3% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 24.9% | +2.5% |
| Yverdon win | 46.9% | 43.1% | +3.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 59.9% | -6.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.0% | 39.6% | -8.6% |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 63.0% | -6.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 41.0% | -4.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Etoile-Carouge 43.4 / Yverdon 32 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.