Xamax vs Yverdon
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-09-01 · 19:30 CET
LLLWL
DWWLDThe score model made a Yverdon win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Xamax 1.44 – 1.90 Yverdon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xamax win | 28.1% | 35.5% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 26.5% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Yverdon win | 47.5% | 38.0% | +9.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | 59.1% | +5.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.9% | 39.2% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | 62.4% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.8% | 41.3% | +4.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Xamax 46.9 / Yverdon 30.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.