Aarau vs Xamax
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-08-28 · 20:15 CET
DLDWL
LWWWLThe score model makes a Aarau win the most likely outcome at 52%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 53.4% vs 43.5% implied (+9.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aarau 2.02 – 1.37 Xamax.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aarau win | 51.6% | 48.1% | +3.5% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 24.8% | -1.4% |
| Xamax win | 25.1% | 27.1% | -2.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | 63.2% | +2.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.0% | 43.4% | +0.6% |
| Both teams to score | 65.7% | 64.2% | +1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.4% | 43.5% | +9.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Aarau 46.6 / Xamax 46.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.