Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile-Carouge
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-08-21 · 19:30 CET
LDLLL
WLDLLThe score model made an Etoile-Carouge win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stade Nyonnais 1.01 – 1.41 Etoile-Carouge.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Nyonnais win | 25.8% | 24.6% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 24.1% | +5.0% | ✓ |
| Etoile-Carouge win | 45.1% | 51.2% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.3% | 58.1% | -14.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 37.4% | -15.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.0% | 58.8% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 39.9% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stade Nyonnais 43.3 / Etoile-Carouge 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.