Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile-Carouge
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-08-21 · 19:30 CET
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LDWDLThe score model makes an Etoile-Carouge win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 56.7% vs 43.0% implied (+13.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stade Nyonnais 1.00 – 1.41 Etoile-Carouge.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Nyonnais win | 25.8% | 28.4% | -2.6% |
| Draw | 29.2% | 24.7% | +4.5% |
| Etoile-Carouge win | 45.1% | 46.9% | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.3% | 57.0% | -13.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 36.0% | -13.6% |
| Both teams to score | 49.0% | 58.7% | -9.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 38.6% | -5.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stade Nyonnais 43.4 / Etoile-Carouge 41.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.