Sundsvall vs Varberg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-11-07 · 15:00 CET
WLLLL
WDDDDThe score model makes a Varberg win the most likely outcome at 64%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 66.9% vs 56.6% implied (+10.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sundsvall 0.87 – 2.04 Varberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sundsvall win | 14.6% | 9.5% | +5.0% |
| Draw | 21.4% | 16.1% | +5.3% |
| Varberg win | 64.0% | 74.3% | -10.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | 64.2% | -8.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.1% | 43.4% | -10.3% |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 50.5% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 44.2% | -3.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Sundsvall 45.1 / Varberg 42 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sundsvall vs Varberg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.