Norrkoping vs Sundsvall
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-10-13 · 19:00 CET
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WLLWLThe score model made a Norrkoping win the most likely outcome at 80%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Norrkoping 2.38 – 0.48 Sundsvall.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norrkoping win | 79.6% | 79.1% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 15.0% | 13.3% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Sundsvall win | 5.3% | 7.6% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 69.5% | -15.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.0% | 49.9% | -17.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 34.7% | 49.9% | -15.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.8% | 48.1% | -3.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Norrkoping 20.5 / Sundsvall 43 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.