Norrby vs Oster
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-10-10 · 17:00 CET
WLLLD
LWWWDThe score model made an Oster win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Norrby 1.20 – 1.45 Oster.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norrby win | 30.8% | 46.5% | -15.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 24.4% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Oster win | 42.2% | 29.1% | +13.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 62.9% | -13.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.6% | 42.2% | -14.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | 64.0% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 42.6% | -8.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Norrby 20.9 / Oster 30.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Norrby vs Oster in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.