Landskrona vs Sandviken
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-10-10 · 13:00 CET
WLWWW
WLDWLThe score model made a Landskrona win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Landskrona 1.55 – 1.27 Sandviken.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landskrona win | 43.4% | 51.8% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 24.3% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Sandviken win | 30.6% | 23.9% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 58.9% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.2% | 37.7% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | 59.5% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.6% | 40.4% | +8.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Landskrona 43.5 / Sandviken 40 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.