Sundsvall vs Norrby
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-31 · 19:00 CET
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LLLLDThe score model made a Norrby win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sundsvall 1.02 – 1.32 Norrby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sundsvall win | 28.2% | 32.1% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 28.0% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Norrby win | 43.0% | 40.0% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 50.3% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 29.6% | -8.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | 55.3% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.5% | 34.2% | -12.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sundsvall 41.5 / Norrby 17.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.