Sandviken vs Oster
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-30 · 17:00 CET
DWLDW
DLLWLThe score model made a Sandviken win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sandviken 1.63 – 1.49 Oster.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandviken win | 40.7% | 45.3% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 25.1% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Oster win | 34.8% | 29.6% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | 64.6% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.8% | 44.3% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | 65.9% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.7% | 44.3% | +6.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sandviken 38.1 / Oster 28.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.