Nordic United vs Norrkoping
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-29 · 17:00 CET
LWLDL
WDWDWThe score model made a Norrkoping win the most likely outcome at 52%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nordic United 0.84 – 1.49 Norrkoping.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nordic United win | 20.9% | 27.0% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 25.7% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Norrkoping win | 51.9% | 47.2% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.2% | 58.1% | -16.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.7% | 37.5% | -16.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.6% | 60.4% | -15.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 39.1% | -7.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nordic United 17.2 / Norrkoping 17.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.