Falkenberg vs Brage
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-29 · 15:00 CET
WLWWD
LLDDLThe score model made a Falkenberg win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Falkenberg 2.33 – 1.33 Brage.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkenberg win | 59.5% | 47.3% | +12.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.9% | 25.9% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Brage win | 20.6% | 26.7% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.7% | 57.0% | +13.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.6% | 36.4% | +13.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.6% | 59.5% | +7.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 55.7% | 38.9% | +16.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Falkenberg 31.2 / Brage 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.