Oster vs Sundsvall
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-25 · 19:00 CET
DLLWL
WWLLWThe score model made an Oster win the most likely outcome at 66%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oster 2.14 – 0.88 Sundsvall.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oster win | 65.9% | 54.9% | +11.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.2% | 23.8% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Sundsvall win | 13.9% | 21.3% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 58.9% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.8% | 38.1% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 59.1% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.7% | 40.8% | -3.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oster 27.6 / Sundsvall 41 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.