Varnamo vs Landskrona
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-24 · 19:00 CET
LDWWD
LLLWDThe score model makes an Landskrona win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Landskrona win — 44.1% vs 31.1% implied (+13.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varnamo 1.22 – 1.53 Landskrona.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Varnamo win | 30.1% | 41.9% | -11.8% |
| Draw | 25.8% | 27.0% | -1.2% |
| Landskrona win | 44.1% | 31.1% | +13.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 56.1% | -4.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.8% | 35.8% | -6.0% |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 59.8% | -4.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.4% | 38.6% | -3.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Varnamo 16.5 / Landskrona 42.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.