Varnamo vs Landskrona
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-24 · 19:00 CET
WDWLW
DWLWWThe score model made a Landskrona win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varnamo 1.22 – 1.53 Landskrona.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varnamo win | 30.0% | 40.0% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 27.3% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Landskrona win | 44.0% | 32.6% | +11.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 56.4% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.8% | 35.8% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 59.5% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 38.4% | -3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Varnamo 16.4 / Landskrona 41.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.