Norrkoping vs Falkenberg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-24 · 19:05 CET
WDWDW
WLWWDThe score model made a Norrkoping win the most likely outcome at 62%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Norrkoping 1.87 – 0.81 Falkenberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norrkoping win | 61.9% | 59.9% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 22.1% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Falkenberg win | 15.5% | 18.0% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 60.6% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.2% | 40.1% | -11.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | 57.8% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.4% | 41.5% | +7.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Norrkoping 16.4 / Falkenberg 30.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.