Oddevold vs Helsingborg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-23 · 13:00 CET
LDDWD
WDLLDThe score model makes a Oddevold win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 66.8% vs 62.8% implied (+4.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oddevold 1.67 – 1.28 Helsingborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oddevold win | 46.3% | 48.1% | -1.8% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.1% | -1.5% |
| Helsingborg win | 29.1% | 25.8% | +3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 54.5% | +1.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.0% | 33.9% | +0.1% |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 57.1% | +1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 37.2% | -4.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oddevold 37.8 / Helsingborg 41.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.