Oddevold vs Helsingborg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-23 · 13:00 CET
LWWDL
DLWLDThe score model made an Oddevold win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oddevold 1.67 – 1.28 Helsingborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oddevold win | 46.3% | 47.7% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.2% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Helsingborg win | 29.1% | 26.0% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 54.6% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.0% | 33.7% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 57.3% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.2% | 37.4% | -4.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oddevold 37.6 / Helsingborg 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.