Norrby vs Sandviken
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-23 · 17:00 CET
WDDWL
LWWWLThe score model makes a Norrby win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.6% vs 62.1% implied (+7.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Norrby 1.46 – 1.32 Sandviken.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norrby win | 40.0% | 40.0% | +0.0% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.2% | -0.3% |
| Sandviken win | 34.1% | 33.8% | +0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 58.7% | -6.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 37.9% | -7.5% |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 61.9% | -5.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 40.4% | +0.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Norrby 17.3 / Sandviken 37.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.