Norrby vs Sandviken
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-23 · 17:00 CET
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DWLDWThe score model made a Norrby win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Norrby 1.46 – 1.31 Sandviken.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norrby win | 40.2% | 39.5% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.5% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Sandviken win | 33.8% | 34.0% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 58.7% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 38.3% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | 62.0% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.6% | 39.9% | +0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Norrby 17.1 / Sandviken 37.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.