Brage vs Nordic United
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-23 · 15:00 CET
LDWLD
WDDDDThe score model makes a Brage win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 67.1% vs 59.4% implied (+7.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brage 1.61 – 1.53 Nordic United.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brage win | 39.6% | 38.4% | +1.1% |
| Draw | 24.2% | 26.2% | -2.0% |
| Nordic United win | 36.2% | 35.3% | +0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | 59.3% | +1.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.4% | 38.7% | -0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | 62.5% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 40.6% | -7.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brage 42.1 / Nordic United 16.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.