Varnamo vs Ostersund
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-16 · 13:00 CET
WDWLW
DWDWDThe score model made an Ostersund win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varnamo 1.37 – 1.49 Ostersund.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varnamo win | 34.7% | 36.7% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 27.1% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Ostersund win | 39.9% | 36.2% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 55.5% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.2% | 34.6% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 59.6% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 37.9% | -6.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Varnamo 15.7 / Ostersund 41.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.