Sundsvall vs Helsingborg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-15 · 15:00 CET
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DLWLDThe score model made a Helsingborg win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sundsvall 1.21 – 1.58 Helsingborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sundsvall win | 29.1% | 28.2% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 26.6% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Helsingborg win | 46.0% | 45.3% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 53.7% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 32.8% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 56.8% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 36.7% | -6.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sundsvall 40.8 / Helsingborg 40.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.