Sundsvall vs Helsingborg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-15 · 15:00 CET
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LWDLLThe score model makes an Helsingborg win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 70.3% vs 64.1% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sundsvall 1.21 – 1.58 Helsingborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sundsvall win | 29.1% | 28.7% | +0.4% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 27.0% | -2.1% |
| Helsingborg win | 46.0% | 44.3% | +1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | 52.3% | +0.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 31.9% | -1.3% |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 56.3% | -0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 35.9% | -6.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sundsvall 40.9 / Helsingborg 41 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.