Sandviken vs Norrkoping
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-15 · 17:00 CET
WLWWW
LWWWWThe score model makes an Norrkoping win the most likely outcome at 52%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 79.2% vs 61.1% implied (+18.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sandviken 0.85 – 1.49 Norrkoping.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandviken win | 21.3% | 25.6% | -4.3% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 25.2% | +1.1% |
| Norrkoping win | 52.3% | 49.1% | +3.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 59.4% | -18.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 38.9% | -18.0% |
| Both teams to score | 44.3% | 61.0% | -16.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.2% | 40.6% | +6.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sandviken 37.3 / Norrkoping 15.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.