Falkenberg vs Norrby
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-15 · 17:00 CET
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LLLLDThe score model made a Falkenberg win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Falkenberg 1.88 – 1.16 Norrby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkenberg win | 54.2% | 50.9% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 24.7% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Norrby win | 23.3% | 24.4% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 58.2% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 37.0% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 59.4% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 39.9% | +1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Falkenberg 30 / Norrby 16.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.