Falkenberg vs Norrby
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-15 · 17:00 CET
WLWLD
WWDDWThe score model makes a Falkenberg win the most likely outcome at 54%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Falkenberg win — 54.1% vs 51.4% implied (+2.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Falkenberg 1.87 – 1.15 Norrby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falkenberg win | 54.1% | 51.4% | +2.7% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 24.6% | -2.0% |
| Norrby win | 23.3% | 24.0% | -0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 58.8% | -0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 37.8% | -1.9% |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 59.4% | -1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 39.9% | +1.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Falkenberg 30.1 / Norrby 16.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.