Varberg vs Sandviken
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-09 · 15:00 CET
WDLWW
DWLDWThe score model made a Varberg win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varberg 1.89 – 1.38 Sandviken.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varberg win | 49.2% | 50.6% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 24.9% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Sandviken win | 28.1% | 24.5% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.5% | 59.0% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.3% | 38.0% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | 60.1% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.3% | 40.5% | +4.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Varberg 36.6 / Sandviken 36.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.