Varberg vs Sandviken
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-08-09 · 13:00
The score model makes a Varberg win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Varberg 1.88 – 1.37 Sandviken.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Varberg win | 49.1% | 50.5% | -1.4% |
| Draw | 23.0% | 24.9% | -1.8% |
| Sandviken win | 27.9% | 24.6% | +3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | 59.2% | +3.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 38.2% | +2.5% |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | 60.0% | +3.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.2% | 40.5% | +4.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Varberg 36.7 / Sandviken 36.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.