Hammarby vs Goteborg
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-11-23 · 19:00 CET
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DDDLDThe score model makes a Hammarby win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 60.7% vs 55.1% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hammarby 2.32 – 0.86 Goteborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby win | 69.9% | 76.0% | -6.1% |
| Draw | 18.1% | 15.1% | +3.0% |
| Goteborg win | 12.0% | 8.8% | +3.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 65.6% | -4.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.3% | 44.9% | -5.6% |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 48.8% | +3.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 45.5% | -3.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hammarby 43.5 / Goteborg 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hammarby vs Goteborg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.