Elfsborg vs Halmstad
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-10-12 · 19:00 CET
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WLLWLThe score model made an Elfsborg win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Elfsborg 1.86 – 0.73 Halmstad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfsborg win | 64.2% | 71.0% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.8% | 17.8% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Halmstad win | 14.0% | 11.2% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 60.5% | -12.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.3% | 39.4% | -13.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.9% | 49.6% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 41.4% | -12.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Elfsborg 40.6 / Halmstad 40.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.