Sirius vs Malmo FF
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-31 · 19:00 CET
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LWDWLThe score model made a Sirius win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 73%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sirius 2.00 – 1.77 Malmo FF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius win | 43.6% | 53.9% | -10.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.8% | 22.2% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Malmo FF win | 34.6% | 23.9% | +10.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.6% | 65.9% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52.0% | 45.5% | +6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 72.0% | 64.5% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.2% | 44.6% | +7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sirius 40.4 / Malmo FF 40.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.