GAIS vs Brommapojkarna
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-31 · 19:00 CET
LWDLW
WLWLLThe score model made a GAIS win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: GAIS 1.53 – 0.93 Brommapojkarna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAIS win | 50.9% | 53.0% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 25.1% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Brommapojkarna win | 22.6% | 21.9% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 54.9% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 34.1% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 55.9% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.8% | 37.6% | -10.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: GAIS 36.1 / Brommapojkarna 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.