Djurgarden vs Mjallby
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-31 · 19:00 CET
WWWWL
LLDDLThe score model made a Djurgarden win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 4:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Djurgarden 1.46 – 1.13 Mjallby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djurgarden win | 44.3% | 63.4% | -19.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 20.6% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Mjallby win | 28.9% | 16.1% | +12.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.7% | 62.2% | -14.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.0% | 41.3% | -15.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 57.1% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.2% | 42.0% | -3.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Djurgarden 39.6 / Mjallby 38.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.