AIK vs Hammarby
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-30 · 14:00 CET
WDLDL
WLDWWThe score model made a Hammarby win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AIK 1.02 – 1.59 Hammarby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIK win | 23.8% | 15.6% | +8.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 20.2% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Hammarby win | 50.3% | 64.2% | -13.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | 62.9% | -14.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.6% | 42.1% | -15.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 57.5% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 42.8% | -9.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AIK 39.4 / Hammarby 40.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.