Hacken vs Vasteras SK
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-08-29 · 15:00 CET
DDLWW
DWLWLThe score model makes a Hacken win the most likely outcome at 56%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 57.2% vs 53.4% implied (+3.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hacken 2.08 – 1.26 Vasteras SK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hacken win | 55.9% | 59.7% | -3.8% |
| Draw | 21.5% | 21.4% | +0.1% |
| Vasteras SK win | 22.6% | 18.9% | +3.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | 66.6% | -1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.8% | 46.6% | -3.9% |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | 63.0% | -0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.7% | 47.0% | +1.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hacken 41 / Vasteras SK 21.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.